{"id":630,"date":"2026-06-15T21:44:17","date_gmt":"2026-06-15T21:44:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/commercialrelocationpros.com\/?p=630"},"modified":"2026-06-15T21:44:17","modified_gmt":"2026-06-15T21:44:17","slug":"an-understanding-that-a-deal-might-happen","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/commercialrelocationpros.com\/?p=630","title":{"rendered":"An Understanding That a Deal Might Happen"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Declaring that \u201cthe deal is all signed\u201d<\/span> with Iran, as President Trump did today, is like shopping for a wedding dress after a good first date: It\u2019s just too soon.<\/p>\n

Read more This Is How America Loses the AI Race<\/a><\/p>\n

A deal has an element of finality and permanence. A nuclear deal with Iran, for example, would require specific obligations, concessions, and verification measures, such as inspections, agreed to by all parties. What Iran and the United States are moving toward, with a signing ceremony scheduled for Friday in Geneva, is an agreement that could set the conditions for a potential deal. In the meantime, the war\u2019s shaky cease-fire would be extended for 60 days and commercial shipping would once again transit the Strait of Hormuz unimpeded. (Neither side has released the agreed-upon text, although U.S. officials said today that Trump, Vice President Vance, and the speaker of Iran\u2019s Parliament have already digitally signed on the dotted line.)<\/p>\n

If all goes to plan, both sides would then use the breathing room to address more complicated issues, such as how to manage Iran\u2019s nuclear program, just as they were doing before February 28, when Trump went to war. Although the war has weakened Iran\u2019s military, killed members of its leadership, and put pressure on Tehran, the memorandum of understanding is also an acknowledgment that the U.S. cannot solve the problem of Iran with either a war or economic pressure. Despite the thousands of strikes, and the damage done to Iran\u2019s oil-export-driven economy, the U.S. has little choice but to try diplomacy again.<\/p>\n

Another mark of how much the U.S. has deviated from its aims at the conflict\u2019s outset is the fate of the Strait of Hormuz. Its centrality to the new memorandum might suggest that Iran\u2019s blockage of the narrow channel was a reason for the U.S. and Israel to go to war in the first place. Not so. The strait was open on the day the war started. Iran closed it, snarling global energy-supply chains, to gain exactly the leverage now being employed at the negotiating table.<\/p>\n

By contrast, none of Trump\u2019s initial goals for the conflict has been achieved. The negotiations are designed to address the nuclear program, but it is not clear whether reducing Iran\u2019s missile batteries and its proxy militias will be on the agenda for the 60-day talks, or the additional negotiating increments that will almost certainly follow. \u201cI worry about results, and I worry about getting to a place that is good for the American people,\u201d Vance told us in a brief interview. \u201cRight now, we\u2019re on a pathway to get to a very good place for our country. I want to keep on working towards that end.\u201d<\/p>\n

Maybe at the end of that cycle, the U.S. and Iran will have an agreement worth calling a deal.<\/p>\n

The results of the war<\/span> have been muddy enough that hawks on each side want to see a convincing victory and believe that such an outcome might still be within reach.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe Islamic Republic is not a problem that can be negotiated away,\u201d Mark Dubowitz, the chief executive of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, wrote on X yesterday. He suggested that the United States should support Iranians in overthrowing the regime, something that Trump signaled he favored at the start of the war but has since abandoned. \u201cThe only solution is maximum support for the Iranian people,\u201d Dubowitz continued. \u201cGiven the opportunity and assistance they need, they can cripple\u2014and ultimately end\u2014this terrorist regime.\u201d<\/p>\n

Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, a Trump ally who strongly supported military action, suggested on X that the U.S. is giving up too much too quickly just to secure the strait\u2019s reopening, even though its closure has sent energy prices soaring.<\/p>\n

Graham, who rarely criticizes the president directly, said that he was \u201cpleased\u201d that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen but was \u201csomewhat concerned that Iran\u2019s view of the agreement seems different than what the American negotiating team is claiming.\u201d He didn\u2019t provide specifics, and accounts vary regarding exactly how and when the Strait of Hormuz will reopen. Graham also reminded Trump that any nuclear deal would need Congress\u2019s formal sign-off, and he heaped pressure on Vance, a presumed candidate for president in 2028, to make the case on Capitol Hill.<\/p>\n

Other GOP Iran hawks were notably quiet in the hours after Trump\u2019s triumphant announcement yesterday. Rather than cheering the news, party leaders, including House Speaker Mike Johnson, celebrated the president\u2019s 80th birthday and the Ultimate Fighting Championship event at the White House. Neither Johnson nor Senate Majority Leader John Thune has said anything official or substantial about the Iran development since. About a dozen other Republican backers of the Iran war either declined or did not respond to requests for interviews or comment\u2014hardly a ringing endorsement of their president\u2019s negotiating prowess.<\/p>\n

Read more The Difficult People We Cannot Escape<\/a><\/p>\n

Critics of Trump\u2019s Iran policy on the right and the left found some unity in demanding to see the full text of the memorandum, viewing its secrecy as a sign that American negotiators had whiffed. \u201cTrump must release the details publicly, brief Congress immediately, and end this war for good,\u201d Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said in a statement. U.S. officials, briefing reporters earlier today, said the text would be released but didn\u2019t say when.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, Iranian hard-liners (some of whom came to power when other leaders were killed in the war), as well as members of Iran\u2019s Parliament and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, argue that Iran was too quick to surrender the leverage that Tehran gained by closing the strait. They want guarantees of long-term economic relief, not temporary understandings or the extension of an already-fragile cease-fire, which Trump once described as \u201cshooting in a more moderate manner.\u201d<\/p>\n

Both the regime and hawks in Iran \u201cwant to turn this strategic moment into a new reality in the region, while gaining economic benefits,\u201d Vali Nasr, a professor of international affairs and Middle East studies at Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, told us. The difference between the hawks and the decision makers is that the decision makers \u201cdon\u2019t want to go back to a hot war\u201d and want to prioritize the regime\u2019s survival.<\/p>\n

U.S. officials told reporters that no frozen Iranian assets have yet been released and that any initial relief would consist of limited, reciprocal \u201csmall gestures\u201d intended to build trust. But Tehran has reasons to be hopeful. \u201cWhat you\u2019ll see is that, you know, we are prepared to release frozen funds, and we are prepared to release sanctions,\u201d one of the U.S. officials said. That may serve to only further infuriate the hawks in Washington.<\/p>\n

Around the time that Trump said <\/span>a deal had been reached, Israel launched strikes inside Beirut, retaliating against Hezbollah, Iran\u2019s proxy.<\/p>\n

Tehran had linked any agreement to a cessation of strikes inside Lebanon. But U.S. officials have said that an agreement was not conditional on Israel\u2019s withdrawal from Lebanon and stressed that any cease-fire would not be one-sided, and would preserve Israel\u2019s right to respond to Hezbollah attacks. Israel\u2019s latest strikes likely reinforced Tehran\u2019s belief that Washington cannot constrain Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is not ready for even a temporary arrangement.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe know the near entirety of the Israeli political spectrum is unhappy about what is transpiring,\u201d H. A. Hellyer, a senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute International, told us. \u201cI think between now and Friday, publicly or privately, we are going to be seeing a lot of tension between Washington and Tel Aviv about what this deal means for Lebanon in particular.\u201d Hellyer suggested that Netanyahu was unlikely to respond to rhetoric about the need for Israel to stand down, which would require Washington to look for greater sources of leverage, such as withholding arms sales and aid. If the Trump administration isn\u2019t willing to go that far, Tehran may question Trump\u2019s commitment to the prevention of Iran\u2019s nuclear development.<\/p>\n

Central to the negotiation is enforcement, U.S. officials told reporters, in which sanctions relief would be tied not to any single action but to Iranian behavior. The message is \u201ceverything is on the table\u201d if Iran complies\u2014and nothing is if it does not. U.S. officials acknowledged that cease-fires and transitions from conflict to peace are inherently messy, and they warned that implementation challenges are likely and could possibly include violations by hard-line factions inside Iran. But officials held out hope that successful negotiations, with the support of others in the region such as Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, could encourage Tehran to become a more constructive regional actor.<\/p>\n

The ultimate test, of course, is whether signing a memorandum can translate to a durable peace before domestic politics or regional instability scupper its chances. Trump may be unlikely to restart the war\u2014as he has threatened to do if the talks don\u2019t go well\u2014especially given the proximity of the midterm elections. But don\u2019t expect U.S. troops to return home anytime soon. The U.S. will maintain its current military posture in the region for now, the U.S. officials said. Any reduction in U.S. forces will depend on Iran following through on its commitments under an agreement that has not yet been reached\u2014and that may not be for some time.<\/p>\n

Read more The Conversions of J. D. Vance<\/a><\/p>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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