{"id":1836,"date":"2026-08-05T16:10:40","date_gmt":"2026-08-05T16:10:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/commercialrelocationpros.com\/?p=1836"},"modified":"2026-08-05T16:10:40","modified_gmt":"2026-08-05T16:10:40","slug":"the-democrats-riskiest-midterm-play","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/commercialrelocationpros.com\/?p=1836","title":{"rendered":"The Democrats\u2019 Riskiest Midterm Play"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

The Democratic nominee for Montana\u2019s open U.S. Senate seat, Alani Bankhead, has been telling everyone for months that there is no price anyone can pay to keep her name from appearing on the November ballot. \u201cWhy is it you are asking me a question I have been asked a thousand times?\u201d she told me on Monday, when I tried to probe her commitment to the race. \u201cThere is nothing that is going to force me from the ticket unless God himself tells me to drop out.\u201d<\/p>\n

Read more Trump Should Need a Warrant to See Your Phone<\/a><\/p>\n

The lack of divine intervention has challenged Democratic hopes for a big-sky Senate pickup. As it stands, Bankhead will likely split the state\u2019s ever shrinking number of non-Republicans with an independent candidate, Seth Bodnar, who has raised more money and secured more support from senior party leaders who believe he will caucus with Democrats if he prevails. That all but ensures a win for the Republican candidate, Kurt Alme, which has set off a last-minute scramble to push Bankhead from the race before the August 10 deadline for locking the ballot. The state Democratic Party has been preparing for her to leave the race. A national Democratic polling firm, Global Strategy Group, circulated new polling yesterday arguing that she should drop out. And national Democrats have been calling her, seeking meetings. Bankhead told me that last week former Governor Steve Bullock, a Democrat who has not yet endorsed in the race, called her to ask if she would meet him for coffee. She said she did not respond. \u201cIt is a very strange process to be in this position where Alani feels more like the independent than the independent,\u201d Jeri Duran, her communications strategist, told me.<\/p>\n

Shannon O\u2019Brien, the head of the state party, convened a meeting of its executive board last Thursday to discuss the possibility of leaving the Democratic line on the ballot empty if Bankhead does leave the race. State law says political parties \u201cshall\u201d appoint a replacement if the nominee bows out 85 or more days from an election. State Democratic party bylaws say that the party central committee \u201cshall\u201d call a meeting and \u201cshall\u201d vote on a replacement. The Montana secretary of state, a Republican, says the state party must follow those words and pick a replacement.<\/p>\n

But Jacquelyn Lopez, the general counsel for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, attended the meeting to argue that the party would likely win in court if it opted not to replace Bankhead, according to three people familiar with the meeting who were not authorized to speak publicly. Under this plan, the party would gloss over the \u201cshall\u201ds in state law and party rules on the grounds that political parties have the power to interpret their own rules and significant right under the First Amendment to do what they please. Someone in the meeting asked Lopez if the Democratic National Committee would fund the inevitable lawsuits that would result from such a move, the three people said. Lopez answered in the affirmative, all three said, including one who referenced written notes of the meeting made the following day. \u201cThere was without a doubt comments made that made everyone think the DNC would pay for it,\u201d one of the people told me. \u201cFor everyone after the meeting, there was the gist that we were going to have our bills paid for us.\u201d<\/p>\n

Lopez, an attorney at the Elias Law Group, told me that she represented the state party and not the DSCC at the meeting. \u201cI did not state that the DNC would fund a lawsuit at any point, and it would be inaccurate to report that,\u201d she told me. She did not respond to follow-up questions. A spokesperson for the DNC, Angelo Fern\u00e1ndez Hern\u00e1ndez, told me that the national party \u201chas never been approached to pay any legal bills related to candidates dropping out from the election.\u201d A DSCC spokesperson told me the committee was not involved in the meeting.<\/p>\n

The discussion only deepened suspicions that national Democrats are conspiring against the state\u2019s Democratic candidate in what is emerging as the clumsiest, if not the most catastrophic, political gambit of the 2026 midterms. \u201cIt\u2019s pretty wild out here,\u201d Nancy Keenan, a former Montana Democratic Party executive director, told me. \u201cThey call it the Wild West\u2014but holy Toledo.\u201d<\/p>\n

The disappear-the-Democrat electoral strategy\u2014a response to the party\u2019s terrible national brand, especially in states Donald Trump comfortably won\u2014has had more success elsewhere.\u00a0 In Nebraska, Democrats nominated a candidate for Senate who pledged to abandon her campaign to clear the way for an independent, Dan Osborn. In Idaho, the Democratic Senate nominee, David Roth, dropped out last week to make way for the independent Todd Achilles. Yesterday Julian Beaudion, the Democratic nominee for the U.S. Senate seat in South Dakota, said he would suspend his campaign to protect \u201cthe mental and physical safety of my family,\u201d making way for an independent candidate, Brian Bengs.<\/p>\n

Democrats hoped Montana would follow a similar script to clear the way for Bodnar, a former university administrator and U.S. Army Green Beret, who is running on a moderate Democratic platform with a \u201cboth parties are to blame\u201d message. As former Senator Jon Tester put it in a text message to fellow state Democrats about supporting Bodnar, \u201cDuring my last two races the democratic Party was poison in my attempts to get re-elected.\u201d<\/p>\n

But that message never filtered down to the Democratic rank and file, a largely populist and freethinking bunch who have watched their state vote for Trump by double digits three times in a row. Party activists have rebelled, saying that there will be downballot repercussions for abandoning the party brand in the premier statewide race this year, and state voters continue to show significant support for Bankhead, a retired Air Force lieutenant colonel and a first-time candidate. Recent Republican and Democratic polling shows Bodnar and Bankhead roughly splitting the non-Alme vote, giving the Republican a significant double-digit lead in a four-way race that also includes a libertarian candidate.<\/p>\n

Read more The Dystopian Future Dawns in Kherson<\/a><\/p>\n

The situation has created a last-minute scramble and deepening paranoia on all sides. Days after Bankhead heard from Bullock, Montanans began getting calls from pollsters, first reported by theWashington Reporter<\/i>, testing a hypothetical scenario in which Bullock replaced both Bodnar and Bankhead, creating a two-person race between Bullock and Alme. The possibility of Bullock running again for Senate, after losing a bid in 2020, has long circulated in the state, and the funding for the poll has not been disclosed. Bullock did not respond to multiple requests for comment.<\/p>\n

To make matters more complicated, Bankhead won her June 2 primary with significant financial backing from apparent Bodnar allies, according to federal records. They sided with Bankhead over another primary candidate, the fierce Bodnar critic Reilly Neill. The Progressive Vet PAC spent $2.8 million to support Bankhead and oppose Neill. Jason Carroll, a tech entrepreneur and Bodnar donor, gave the group $200,000. The other $2.6 million came from a nonprofit called Contours Inc. that has supported other independent-candidate efforts. Bankhead maintained that she had no ties to the group, and had made no pledge to get out of the race if she won. She has held true to that bargain.<\/p>\n

The pledges of other Democrats in the state have been a bit more complex. Back in April, O\u2019Brien told me she would \u201csupport the Democratic nominee,\u201d and rejected any rumors that the state party was preparing to clear the way for Bodnar. \u201cTo my knowledge there is no intention to change the rules to allow for support of anyone else,\u201d she said. State Senate Minority Leader Pat Flowers told me that the idea of secret plotting for a change in rules to allow Democrats to not field a nominee was a \u201cfever dream.\u201d<\/p>\n

Days after the executive-board meeting last week, O\u2019Brien sent a four-page legal memo from the Elias Law Group to Democrats in the state. The memo acknowledges that the state party\u2019s bylaws instruct the committee to name a replacement candidate if a nominee withdraws. But it went on to argue that if the party tries to replace a candidate and fails, it would likely survive the resulting lawsuit. \u201cThe key question,\u201d the document reads, is how the Montana Democratic Party \u201cinterprets its own bylaws and whether a failure to appoint a replacement candidate is defensible as a reasonable interpretation of the party\u2019s own rules.\u201d In one scenario, the state party could construe its rules to put forward a \u201cnone of the above\u201d option at its nominating meeting. In another scenario, the state party could require qualifications for a replacement candidate that are so stringent that \u201cno available candidate satisfies those requirements.\u201d<\/p>\n

Bankhead has concluded that O\u2019Brien cannot be trusted. \u201cThere is only one person in the state Democratic Party that is standing against me, and that is Shannon O\u2019Brien, who has been in Bodnar\u2019s pocket the whole time,\u201d Bankhead told me. O\u2019Brien has previously denied any effort to support Bodnar, but could not be reached for comment for this story. A spokesperson for the state party declined to comment.<\/p>\n

Bodnar\u2019s campaign, for its part, says he is prepared to win a four-way contest. A super PAC supporting his campaign began running new ads against Bankhead today, asking, \u201cWhat else don\u2019t we know about Alani Bankhead?\u201d Bankhead and Bodnar met privately in Helena on Friday, according to three people familiar with the meeting. Bankhead asked Bodnar to drop out and transfer his endorsement and money to her, two people said, which he declined to do. Bankhead told me Monday that Bodnar has not made the same request of her. \u201cHe said, I would never ask you to drop out<\/i>, and I said, Great, because I wouldn\u2019t<\/i>,\u201d she told me. But both candidates have also made clear that they think the other can\u2019t win, and allies of Bankhead have been calling for Bodnar\u2019s exit. \u201cIf there were somebody else who had a pathway to defeat Kurt Alme in this race, I\u2019d step aside in a heartbeat,\u201d Bodnar told supporters in a livestream Monday night.<\/p>\n

The pressure is likely to only increase over the coming days, testing Bankhead\u2019s resolve. \u201cNobody can accurately predict any election,\u201d she told me. \u201cIf polls mattered, Hillary would have won. If name ID mattered, Bullock would have won. If money mattered, Tester would have won.\u201d<\/p>\n

When she mentioned the Almighty as the only one who might persuade her to abandon her campaign, I asked how frequently she communicated with God. \u201cI am a person of faith,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

Read more Liberals Are Now Fighting a Two-Front War<\/a><\/p>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

They have been backing independent Senate candidates in red states. But Montana is not working as planned.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1835,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1836","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politics"],"yoast_head":"\nThe Democrats\u2019 Riskiest Midterm Play - Commercial Relocation Pros<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/commercialrelocationpros.com\/?p=1836\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Democrats\u2019 Riskiest Midterm Play - Commercial Relocation Pros\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"They have been backing independent Senate candidates in red states. 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