{"id":1548,"date":"2026-07-24T11:42:21","date_gmt":"2026-07-24T11:42:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/commercialrelocationpros.com\/?p=1548"},"modified":"2026-07-24T11:42:21","modified_gmt":"2026-07-24T11:42:21","slug":"the-social-security-reckoning-is-finally-coming","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/commercialrelocationpros.com\/?p=1548","title":{"rendered":"The Social Security Reckoning Is Finally Coming"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Americans have been hearing<\/span> about the looming demise of Social Security for decades. The number of old people receiving benefits has been increasing much more quickly than the number of working-age adults whose taxes pay for those checks. Yet politicians have let the problem fester for so long that the public could be forgiven for thinking that the crisis would never actually arrive.<\/p>\n

Read more The Trap of Millennial Fiction<\/a><\/p>\n

But it\u2019s arriving. For the past 16 years, Social Security has paid out more than it has taken in. This has required dipping into its trust fund, built up over the decades when the Baby Boomers were in their peak earning years. That fund is on track to run out by 2032. When it does, benefits will have to be cut by an expected 22 percent across the board to line up with the tax revenue that funds them.<\/p>\n

Pretty soon, politicians won\u2019t be able to kick this can down the road anymore. Senators elected this November will be in office in 2032. So will the next president. They will have no choice but to come up with a way to save the federal government\u2019s largest and most popular program, lest they be blamed for its partial collapse. The available solutions are politically tricky but not particularly mysterious. They involve raising taxes, increasing the national debt, and cutting benefits, or some mix of the three. Even if our leaders settle on a way to keep Social Security solvent, however, they are unlikely to address the deeper problem underlying the budgetary one: A program designed to reduce poverty has morphed into a transfer of wealth to the richest members of our society.<\/p>\n

In 1935, when the <\/span>Social Security Act was signed into law, the average person entering the workforce could be expected to die at about 65 years old. Those who lived past that age tended to be too disabled to work, leaving them reliant on their children, if not a local charity or poorhouse. Social Security was designed to ameliorate this problem by levying a tax on workers and their employers, and paying benefits to the elderly roughly in proportion to how much they earned during their career. When the checks first went out, in 1940, the average recipient received $22.60 a month, or about $550 in today\u2019s dollars. Such payments did not require too much sacrifice\u2014just a 1 percent tax on the first $3,000 of a person\u2019s earnings, matched by their employer\u2014because there were many times more workers than there were beneficiaries.<\/p>\n

The program ballooned over time. Congress voted repeatedly to expand benefits faster than inflation. But the biggest changes weren\u2019t purposeful. Because benefits are proportional to what a retiree earned during their working years, America\u2019s increasing salaries necessarily made the program grow. So did rising life expectancy. The average 65-year-old now has about 20 years left to live, up from 13 years in 1940. Meanwhile, the pool of workers paying into the system has not kept pace. Fertility rates have fallen, and fewer babies mean fewer workers in the future. The number of workers for each beneficiary has gone down 24 percent since 1990, as more and more is being asked of a smaller share of the population.<\/p>\n

The unfortunate fact is that Social Security was never guaranteed to work forever. The tax formula is simple: Each worker, along with their employer, pays 6 percent of their income, up to $184,500. The benefit formula is not. The Social Security Administration takes your highest-earning 35 years of work and calculates your average monthly earnings from those years, adjusted upward for subsequent growth in average wages. A progressive formula determines how much of that you\u2019ll be paid monthly: Assuming that you elect to start receiving benefits at age 67, you\u2019ll get 90 percent of the first $1,300, 32 percent of the next $6,500, and 15 percent of the remaining.<\/p>\n

The benefit side of the equation and the tax side of the equation do not add up to the same number. Thanks to the wage adjustment and long life expectancies, most people receive substantially more money than they paid in. In the aggregate, revenues have lagged behind benefits. \u201cThere\u2019s no reason those formulas would be compatible with each other,\u201d Andrew Biggs, a former deputy commissioner of the Social Security Administration, told me. The only reason they ever were was that America used to have enough workers to support its population of retirees.<\/p>\n

Preventing the program\u2019s insolvency is a math problem that involves tweaking the tax side, the benefit side, or both, until they equal each other. This is not conceptually difficult. Steven Kull, a political psychologist at the University of Maryland, runs a poll every so often in which he shows participants the possible reforms, telling them how much each change closes the funding gap. \u201cThe biggest theme is that people solve the problem,\u201d Kull told me, with \u201cmajorities taking steps that eliminate most or all of the shortfall.\u201d Respondents tend to be confused as to why their elected leaders haven\u2019t fixed the issue. \u201cThe common answer is, That wasn\u2019t that hard. What\u2019s all the fuss about?<\/i>\u201d<\/p>\n

The problem is not that the math is difficult, but that every possible move comes with downsides. \u201cSocial Security reform is ultimately about breaking promises,\u201d Biggs said. Either you raise taxes above the rate that people are used to, or you cut benefits for people who were counting on them. Historically, Democrats have preferred the former path, proposing to raise taxes on the well-off to pay for the program\u2019s shortfall while leaving benefits alone. Republicans have traditionally wanted to shrink the program\u2014although typically in a somewhat progressive manner. After President George W. Bush\u2019s unpopular privatization push failed, for example, he proposed a slow flattening of the program by making the benefit formula less generous for all but the bottom 30 percent of recipients.<\/p>\n

The Democratic approach has always been more politically popular. Donald Trump was the first Republican to accept that fact. In 2015, as he marched to the Republican nomination, he promised not to touch Social Security, breaking with GOP orthodoxy and thrilling the base. Ever since, the Republican discussion on saving the program has had a distinctly muted tone. A March 2024 white paper by the Republican Study Committee\u2014a caucus that includes most House Republicans\u2014proposed raising the retirement age and \u201cgradually moving towards a flat benefit.\u201d Neither Trump nor Speaker of the House Mike Johnson commented on the proposal. Project 2025, produced by the Heritage Foundation, was more shrewd. The 900-page document contained advice for the future administration on how to properly regulate the shrinking population of greater sage grouse, but it contained no guidance on Social Security.<\/p>\n

Read more The White House\u2019s MAHA Gatekeeper<\/a><\/p>\n

Democratic plans still revolve around raising taxes while keeping benefits constant or even increasing them. But they now tend to include a feature designed to keep the party\u2019s upper-middle-class base happy: the \u201cdoughnut hole.\u201d Many of the current Democratic plans uncap the payroll tax, but typically only for earnings above $400,000, meaning that dollars earned between $185,000 and $400,000 would go untaxed, and everyone who makes less than $185,000 would pay the highest payroll tax rate of all.<\/p>\n

Representative John Larson, a Connecticut Democrat, has introduced many Social Security\u2013reform plans over his 14 terms in Congress. \u201cI personally don\u2019t think that there should be a doughnut hole,\u201d he told me. But, he explained, \u201cduring the presidential campaign, Biden said that we should lift the cap over $400,000.\u201d Larson came to understand why. \u201cEvery town hall I go to, I say, \u2018Raise your hand if you\u2019re making more than $400,000,\u2019 and I\u2019ve yet to have a hand go up.\u201d As Democrats have become the party of the pretty-well-off, they have more and more voters who make more than $185,000 but less than $400,000.<\/p>\n

The doughnut hole<\/span> is one weakness, but every plan has its shortcomings. Last month, Senator Elizabeth Warren, a Democrat, and Senator Bernie Moreno, a Republican, announced a proposal to uncap the payroll tax entirely. Their idea gets points for bipartisanship, but it would close just two-thirds of the shortfall, at most, if implemented. Within three years, benefits would again exceed revenues.<\/p>\n

A few plans get the math to work out with sufficiently large tax hikes. Proposals by and Senators and would uncap the payroll tax (with a doughnut hole) and raise taxes on investment income. These are large tax increases: A wealthy self-employed couple making $800,000\u2014imagine married doctors in private practice\u2014would face a marginal federal tax rate of more than 50 percent.<\/p>\n

Perhaps the biggest problem with these plans is not the new taxes\u2014it\u2019s what the new taxes pay for. Conceived as an anti-poverty program, Social Security today pays out most of its benefits not to the poor but to the middle class and the rich. The bottom 20 percent of older Americans receive just 7 percent of the total benefits. The economics of old age have changed a lot since the 1930s. The prices of assets\u2014homes and stocks\u2014have soared. As a result of these trends, the elderly are now America\u2019s wealthiest age group, living without children in homes that are on average roomier than everyone else\u2019s. No longer are most of them financially dependent on their children; if anything, their descendants are more likely to ask them for help.<\/p>\n

If the public craves a trillion-dollar tax increase on the well-off, there are better ways to spend the money. The federal government already spends about six times as much for each elderly adult as it does each child, even though children and their parents are more than twice as likely to be poor. Uncapping the payroll tax would not close the Social Security shortfall, but it would provide enough money to pay an allowance of $4,500 a child to every family in the country every year. Reforming Social Security by cutting benefits for rich people and raising them for poor people would make the most financial sense and return the program to its roots. President Franklin D. Roosevelt designed Social Security for the elderly not because they were uniquely deserving but because, as he put it in his signing address, they were so \u201cpoverty-ridden.\u201d But that scenario\u2014flattening Social Security and focusing future generosity on the young\u2014doesn\u2019t seem particularly likely. Social Security\u2019s popularity comes from its universality, and if well-off people see their benefits reduced, the program could lose some of its widespread appeal. As I reported this story, many wonks recited to me the old political adage, \u201cPrograms for the poor make poor programs.\u201d<\/p>\n

Indeed, most voters, when faced with the choice, prefer tax increases to benefit cuts. A last year by the National Academy of Social Insurance, a network of social-safety-net researchers, showed that the three most popular reform options were slightly different ways to uncap the payroll tax. The next most popular was an increase in benefits. Even raising the payroll-tax rate on everyone by one percentage point ranked above cutting benefits only for the rich. \u201cBroad-based bipartisan majorities say that they\u2019d even be willing to chip in a little bit more themselves,\u201d Rebecca Vallas, the head of NASI, told me, \u201cif that\u2019s what it takes to prevent benefit cuts.\u201d<\/p>\n

A social safety net that so heavily favors the old and rich over the needy and young is probably not what most Americans would design if they were starting from scratch, but it\u2019s what we have. The likeliest outcome of whatever Congress comes up with in the next six years is that same dynamic, only more so.<\/p>\n

Read more No War for Old Men<\/a><\/p>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Senators elected this November will be in office when America\u2019s most popular federal program is on track to run out of money.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1547,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1548","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ideas"],"yoast_head":"\nThe Social Security Reckoning Is Finally Coming - Commercial Relocation Pros<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/commercialrelocationpros.com\/?p=1548\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Social Security Reckoning Is Finally Coming - Commercial Relocation Pros\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Senators elected this November will be in office when America\u2019s most popular federal program is on track to run out of money.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/commercialrelocationpros.com\/?p=1548\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Commercial Relocation Pros\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-07-24T11:42:21+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"10 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/commercialrelocationpros.com\\\/?p=1548#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/commercialrelocationpros.com\\\/?p=1548\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"admin\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/commercialrelocationpros.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/3a3374a445f1b5d4852b1d7c15b9fe3a\"},\"headline\":\"The Social Security Reckoning Is Finally Coming\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-07-24T11:42:21+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/commercialrelocationpros.com\\\/?p=1548\"},\"wordCount\":1937,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/commercialrelocationpros.com\\\/?p=1548#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/commercialrelocationpros.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/07\\\/d3edc0a6050249451e91d261d33b571a.avif\",\"articleSection\":[\"Ideas\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/commercialrelocationpros.com\\\/?p=1548#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/commercialrelocationpros.com\\\/?p=1548\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/commercialrelocationpros.com\\\/?p=1548\",\"name\":\"The Social Security Reckoning Is Finally Coming - 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