{"id":1412,"date":"2026-07-17T23:41:30","date_gmt":"2026-07-17T23:41:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/commercialrelocationpros.com\/?p=1412"},"modified":"2026-07-17T23:41:30","modified_gmt":"2026-07-17T23:41:30","slug":"trump-has-only-terrible-choices-with-iran","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/commercialrelocationpros.com\/?p=1412","title":{"rendered":"Trump Has Only Terrible Choices With Iran"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Here we are again: Iran is shooting at traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, Donald Trump is ordering retaliatory strikes, and both sides have declared the latest cease-fire agreement \u201cover\u201d or \u201cdead.\u201d That Iran reportedly plotted to kill Trump\u2014possibly in the new 747 given to him by the Qatari royal family\u2014surely did not help. Now Trump is reimposing the American naval blockade. He also threatened to institute a 20 percent toll on all goods transiting the strait, to defray \u201cany and all costs necessary to do the job of providing safety and security to this very volatile section of the World\u201d\u2014then promptly backed off of that.<\/p>\n

Read more Just Ask the Dinosaurs How Bad Air Quality Can Get<\/a><\/p>\n

Unfortunately, the United States has precious few options left for breaking the deadlock over the strait. And those it does have are neither appealing nor likely to succeed.<\/p>\n

The June memorandum of understanding that paused the fighting between Iran and the U.S. was ambiguously worded. Each side chose the interpretation that would best support its claim to control the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian leadership reportedly considers command of the strait a strategic necessity; one official described it as \u201cmore important than dozens of atomic bombs.\u201d The U.S. has made clear that it cannot accept a scenario wherein Iran retains long-term control. Hence, the two countries are at an impasse.<\/p>\n

The Iranians likely believe that their best option is to stay the course and stick to their maximalist demands. They don\u2019t need to damage many ships to effectively shut down the strait; the threat of attack is enough to persuade most ship owners not to attempt to transit, even if insurance is available. This means that Iran needs very few missiles, drones, or mines to close the strait down. And it can withstand the U.S. blockade: Its economy appears reasonably stable, as it has continued exporting oil sufficient to meet its needs throughout the war. It also has a captive population that has grown used to sanctions and economic pain.<\/p>\n

The U.S. is effectively left with four options. Each of them is terrible in its own way. It can stay the current course. It can make life in Iran impossible. It can declare victory and go home. Or it can launch a ground invasion.<\/p>\n

Staying the course means continuing to rely on air strikes against Iran\u2019s military, leadership, and infrastructure as a punitive tool to obtain concessions at the bargaining table. The administration has pursued this strategy for a few months now, and Iranian demands have not budged. A similar approach led to the incremental escalation of the American bombing campaign in Vietnam, which likewise failed to achieve its objective.<\/p>\n

It may also mean continuing to expend munitions in the hope of completely eliminating Iran\u2019s capacity to strike shipping targets. This is a Sisyphean task. Worse, it is draining U.S. stockpiles and leaving America ill-prepared for another conflict. The Center for Strategic and International Studies has concluded that replacing some of the most crucial weapons expended in this war will take at least three years of production.<\/p>\n

The second option is to ramp up the bombing campaign to such an extent that life in Iran becomes unlivable. The U.S. took this approach to Japan at the end of World War II, through both bombing and a naval blockade. Millions of Japanese people would have died of starvation if the war continued into 1946. Concerted strikes on Iranian electrical and water infrastructure, such as dams and desalination plants, could create a similar humanitarian catastrophe.<\/p>\n

Trump has previously threatened to bomb Iranian electrical and bridge infrastructure if Tehran did not agree to terms. This sort of ultimatum places Washington in an escalation trap. If attacks on roads and electrical infrastructure don\u2019t bring Iran to its knees, water and oil likely will be the next targets.<\/p>\n

Read more Cyclosporiasis Is Solved! Right?<\/a><\/p>\n

Iran\u2019s leaders understand that water is one of their country\u2019s greatest vulnerabilities. They have made clear that if the U.S. strikes the infrastructure needed to keep their people alive, they will retaliate in kind against the Gulf States. The U.S. would struggle to defend them against that sort of attack.<\/p>\n

Of the four options available to the U.S., targeting electrical and water infrastructure is the one that cuts most cleanly through the Gordian knot of the Iranian conflict, potentially providing a decisive win at the lowest cost to the U.S. Given that Trump seems to believe that Iran\u2019s leadership tried to have him killed, and that he has threatened to \u201cdecimate and destroy\u201d Iran if it tries again, this possibility may be on the table.<\/p>\n

But such actions would lead to mass death and a flood of refugees, and they would turn the world against the United States. Under previous administrations, U.S. military leadership and legal experts could be trusted to balk at such a monstrous option. However, the Trump administration has purged military leadership of those it considers \u201cwoke,\u201d including many of the senior lawyers who might previously have prohibited such war crimes.<\/p>\n

Another option is for Trump to simply give in to Iran\u2019s demands, declare that he has solved the problem and gotten the best deal imaginable, and walk away. The memorandum of understanding appeared to enact this option. But Iran cleaved to a maximalist interpretation of that agreement, continued to strike shipping, and allegedly plotted to assassinate Trump. A way back to another memorandum of understanding is hard to see at this point, but the administration could decide that this is the least damaging option and hope to sell it as a win.<\/p>\n

Finally, the U.S. could choose to put troops on the ground. However, it lacks the manpower and logistical support to mount a land campaign into Iran. Even seizing tiny Kharg Island would be an exceptionally risky move that might not have the intended effect if it succeeded. As the defending nation, Iran has the \u201chome court\u201d advantage.<\/p>\n

The U.S. has so far avoided putting boots on the ground except to rescue downed pilots. But at the outset of the war, Trump told the New York Post<\/em>, \u201cI don\u2019t have the yips with respect to boots on the ground\u2014like every president says, \u2018There will be no boots on the ground.\u2019 I don\u2019t say it.\u201d He added, \u201cI say \u2018probably don\u2019t need them,\u2019 [or] \u2018if they were necessary.\u2019\u201d The option, however unlikely, can\u2019t be categorically ruled out.<\/p>\n

The U.S. and Iran are locked in a stalemate where neither can neutralize the other\u2019s advantages, nor forcibly compel the other to accept unfavorable peace terms. We have seen a similar dynamic playing out in Ukraine. The U.S. does not have the munitions to continue the current bombing campaign indefinitely. The Trump administration appears to face an unpalatable choice between accepting Iranian hegemony over the strait\u2014or initiating cycles of escalation that cannot end well.<\/p>\n

Read more The Odyssey Was Never About the Gods<\/a><\/p>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Some involve accepting Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz. 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