{"id":1324,"date":"2026-07-15T12:40:53","date_gmt":"2026-07-15T12:40:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/commercialrelocationpros.com\/?p=1324"},"modified":"2026-07-15T12:40:53","modified_gmt":"2026-07-15T12:40:53","slug":"an-iran-agreement-honored-only-in-the-breach","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/commercialrelocationpros.com\/?p=1324","title":{"rendered":"An Iran Agreement Honored Only in the Breach"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

The U.S.-Iran war was supposed<\/span> to be over when President Trump signed a memorandum of understanding last month at a dinner table in the Lower Gallery of Versailles. But Trump has a famously flexible definition of what constitutes a binding contract, Iran feels that it has little to lose from further hostilities, and the two nations have essentially remained at war ever since.<\/p>\n

Read more Atlantic Trivia: Punctuation<\/a><\/p>\n

The agreement was designed to make permanent a cease-fire and to usher in a negotiating period of up to 60 days to settle the many disputes at the root of the conflict. About halfway through the 60-day window, the memorandum\u2019s 14 terms have been honored almost entirely in the breach. The only clause that took immediate effect that has not been violated is the one that says the two sides will keep talking. (Even that requires an asterisk: The talks remain on, but recent belligerence has prompted a time-out, U.S. officials told me.)<\/p>\n

The MOU\u2019s other short-term obligations have already been broken by actions each side has taken in the Strait of Hormuz, by the intermittent resumption of conflict, or by different interpretations of ambiguous clauses. Clause one, for instance, requires \u201cthe immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts.\u201d Since the signing, the United States and Iran have engaged in at least three tit-for-tat exchanges, with the U.S. striking more than 150 targets over the weekend. The U.S. was obligated to lift its blockade of the strait and to withdraw its forces from \u201cproximity\u201d to Iran within 30 days, according to clause four. Instead, Trump notified Congress that hostilities with Iran had resumed, and earlier this week, he reestablished the blockade as well. A huge U.S. force remains in the Gulf. U.S. strikes continued yesterday afternoon.<\/p>\n

Based on the record so far, Trump\u2019s gambit of bringing Iran to the table, to achieve goals the U.S. military alone could not, appears to be in serious jeopardy. Many of the European and Middle Eastern officials I spoke with are skeptical. (Before his death over the weekend, Senator Lindsey Graham, a staunch Trump ally, bluntly predicted that talks, although worth a shot, would likely fail.) So by the time Trump declared last week that the cease-fire between the U.S. and Iran was \u201cover,\u201d he may have thought he was making news; he was really just stating aloud what had already been self-evident.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s a problem for Trump, because he is in a hurry to move on from the war. Talks could yet miraculously deliver on the lofty goal of ending Iran\u2019s nuclear program by August 21, the initial deadline, or they could deliver something less ambitious that Trump is willing to accept. The two countries share the common goal of wanting the Strait of Hormuz to reopen (albeit with a disagreement over how) and for the fighting to stop. But the United States and Iran may instead be left in a resource-sapping limbo of intermittent conflict for the foreseeable future, with the global economy suffering the consequences.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe more you show you are in a rush, the more the Iranians will use time as a weapon,\u201d Jon Alterman, the chair in global security and geostrategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told me. \u201cNeither side wants to be fighting, but neither side can figure out a way to avoid fighting.\u201d<\/p>\n

The MOU, in its first and fourth clauses<\/span>, requires the fighting to stop and U.S. forces to withdraw from \u201cthe proximity of\u201d Iran as the first step toward establishing trust. Neither has happened.<\/p>\n

As the body of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, killed on the opening day of the war, lay in state for mourners across Iran and Iraq last week, Tehran launched drone and missile attacks on U.S. military bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar, as well as on three commercial tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. Central Command responded with strikes on approximately 80 Iranian targets.<\/p>\n

The escalation prompted Trump to declare, from the sidelines of the NATO summit in Ankara,\u00a0 that the cease-fire was effectively \u201cover,\u201d even as U.S. officials assured me that the diplomatic track remained alive. Things got only hotter from there. Strikes escalated over the weekend, and on Saturday, Iran said that the Strait of Hormuz was closed. Trump then said that the U.S. blockade of the strait would be restored, targeting only \u201cIran\u2019s ships or customers from entering or leaving.\u201d The episode raised the likelihood of a prolonged and simmering conflict and dimmed the prospects of a nuclear deal.<\/p>\n

Trump \u201chas always been clear that if Iran shoots, we will shoot back,\u201d Anna Kelly, White House spokesperson, told me in a statement. \u201cIran wants to make a deal, but they should get serious or risk the consequences.\u201d She described the memorandum as \u201cperformance-based.\u201d<\/p>\n

Safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, which the memorandum also promised in clause five, is closely linked to the fighting. But what safe passage looks like has become hostage to different interpretations. The language of the memorandum was deliberately vague in parts, to secure a preliminary agreement, but those vagaries have complicated everything since. Depending on the day, the strait has been either unsafe or unpassable, rendering the agreement\u2019s guarantee of \u201csafe passage of commercial vessels\u201d moot.<\/p>\n

A senior U.S. official, reading the MOU\u2019s text to reporters, stressed that the clause meant that traffic through the strait would remain \u201cfundamentally toll-free\u201d through the 60 days of talks and beyond. After Iran said that it had the right to impose a toll, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said, \u201cNo country is allowed to charge tolls or fees on an international waterway.\u201d<\/p>\n

Despite that, Trump decided that a toll isn\u2019t such a bad idea. \u201cThe U.S.A. will be, from this point forward, known as \u2018THE GUARDIAN OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT,\u2019\u201d he wrote on Truth Social on Monday, adding that the U.S. would charge a 20 percent fee on all cargo. Experts told me that no country would be willing to pay. Sure enough, yesterday morning, Trump backtracked and said that the U.S. would recoup costs through investment from Gulf states, not through a toll.<\/p>\n

Read more You Don\u2019t Need to Vote for Socialists to Get Universal Health Care<\/a><\/p>\n

The poorly written fifth clause also says that Oman and Iran\u2014the two nations that flank the strait\u2014will work together to \u201cdefine the future administration and maritime services.\u201d That ambiguity has proved far more consequential than U.S. negotiators anticipated. Tehran and Muscat have confirmed that they are in discussions to jointly manage commercial shipping through the strait in the future, adding that services provided to transiting vessels would carry associated costs. Clearly, Iran and Oman\u2014and, at least temporarily, Trump\u2014disagree with Rubio.<\/p>\n

The answer to the question at the center of the dispute\u2014Who will decide the rules for commercial shipping in the strait?\u2014remains elusive. Yet it may not prove fatal. \u201cBoth sides in their own way want traffic to resume,\u201d Michael Singh, the managing director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told me. \u201cNeither side has a desire, or even a strategy, for a wider war. So this is really about talking-and-fighting their way through who gets to control the strait, on whose terms, who is going to benefit, and so forth.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cThe core transaction was: Iran opens the Strait of Hormuz, and we give them economic incentives to do it,\u201d Singh added. \u201cIt\u2019s clear that has not happened.\u201d<\/p>\n

The biggest carrot the U.S.<\/span> dangled to lure Iran to the table was a package of incentives to help Tehran repair its devastated economy. Different parts of that relief are contained in different clauses of the agreement, with the ultimate goal of removing all U.S. sanctions. But the provisions are already under severe stress.<\/p>\n

The Treasury Department issued waivers on sanctions targeting Iran\u2019s oil sector, as called for immediately in clause 10, the first tangible economic concession to Iran. But after the attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, the department revoked those waivers. Companies were given until July 17 to wrap up existing transactions before U.S. sanctions snap back into force.<\/p>\n

The reversal was significant not simply because the waivers disappeared but also because they had been intended to demonstrate that diplomacy could produce immediate economic rewards for the regime. Instead, the agreement\u2019s most immediate relief proved to be one of its shortest-lived provisions.<\/p>\n

The complete lifting of sanctions, envisaged in clause seven, was designed to coax Iran into abandoning its nuclear program and disposing of its enriched uranium, spelled out in clause eight, although the details were kicked to the longer negotiations. When the text of the memorandum was read to reporters, the U.S. official said: \u201cWe are saying the sanctions relief and the nuclear issues are connected, and to the extent that you perform on the nuclear questions, you will get the sanctions relief.\u201d The two were supposed to happen in tandem. But given that the preliminary step of issuing waivers has already been revoked, any further progress remains uncertain.<\/p>\n

Trump \u201chas always been clear that if Iran shoots, we will shoot back,\u201d Anna Kelly, White House spokesperson, told me. \u201cIran wants to make a deal, but they should get serious or risk the consequences.\u201d She described the memorandum as \u201cperformance-based.\u201d<\/p>\n

Even a separate promise to maintain the status quo has been challenged. Clause nine calls for Iran to maintain its nuclear program and the U.S. to hold off any new sanctions, until they reach further agreement. But on July 10, the U.S. announced \u201caction to cut off the financial lifelines sustaining Iran\u2019s ruling elite\u201d by imposing fresh sanctions.<\/p>\n

The memorandum also commits the U.S. and its regional partners to developing a plan for Iran worth at least $300 billion within 60 days. It is one of the agreement\u2019s boldest proposals. It was also news to many of those expected to provide the funds. When the text of clause six was revealed, I started receiving messages from senior regional officials who were hearing for the first time about their own governments\u2019 supposed contributions. They were asking me what, exactly, had been promised.<\/p>\n

U.S. officials insist that the provision has been widely misunderstood by the public and the media. They say that the U.S. does not envision Gulf governments depositing hundreds of billions of dollars into Iranian state coffers. Rather, the goal is to create a framework that encourages long-term foreign investment in a post-sanctions Iran, particularly in sectors such as energy and infrastructure. Whether or not that plan survives, it faces at least one big problem: Iran has spent the past several weeks attacking some of the very countries now being asked to help it rebuild.<\/p>\n

Despite the memorandum being replete with violations, vagaries, and tough-to-fulfill ambitions, one provision has so far proved resilient. Clause three calls for both sides to talk for 60 days. That period can be extended if both sides agree. So in the absence of a major breakthrough, the president who objected to forever wars may have landed himself in a forever negotiation\u2014if that\u2019s what he decides he wants to do.<\/p>\n

Read more Who Really Controls the Strait of Hormuz?<\/a><\/p>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Trump and Iran might keep talking. Or they might keep bombing. Or both.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1323,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1324","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-national-security"],"yoast_head":"\nAn Iran Agreement Honored Only in the Breach - Commercial Relocation Pros<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/commercialrelocationpros.com\/?p=1324\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"An Iran Agreement Honored Only in the Breach - Commercial Relocation Pros\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Trump and Iran might keep talking. Or they might keep bombing. 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