{"id":1182,"date":"2026-07-08T19:16:11","date_gmt":"2026-07-08T19:16:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/commercialrelocationpros.com\/?p=1182"},"modified":"2026-07-08T19:16:11","modified_gmt":"2026-07-08T19:16:11","slug":"iran-not-trump-is-in-control-of-this-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/commercialrelocationpros.com\/?p=1182","title":{"rendered":"Iran, Not Trump, Is in Control of This War"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

If Donald Trump ever had any control over the war he started with Iran, he\u2019s lost it. The Iranians are now setting the terms of this conflict, and routinely humiliating the American president. The \u201ccease-fire\u201d Trump declared last month\u2014a move probably meant to both soothe international markets and avert legislative action from the United States Congress\u2014never really existed, because neither side ever ceased firing. The situation is now back to a kind of slow-motion punch-up: In the past few days, the Iranians struck three tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, the Americans attacked some 80 targets in Iran, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps now claims it hit some 85 U.S.-affiliated targets in Bahrain and Kuwait.<\/p>\n

Read more What Is the Point of Patriot Front?<\/a><\/p>\n

This morning, Trump was asked whether the memorandum of understanding with Iran, the document that was supposed to provide the foundation for negotiations, was dead. Trump hesitated a bit and said: \u201cThat\u2019s a very interesting question. To me, I think it\u2019s over. I don\u2019t wanna deal with them anymore. They\u2019re scum, you know what scum is? They\u2019re scum. They\u2019re sick people. They\u2019re led by sick people. And they\u2019re vicious, violent people.\u201d<\/p>\n

Last month, of course, Trump had nothing but nice things to say about the Iranian leaders. \u201cWe\u2019re dealing with people that I think are very rational people. And they were nice to deal with.\u201d He described them as \u201cstrong people, smart people,\u201d who were not \u201cradicalized.\u201d They were just loyal Iranians, \u201cand they\u2019re, you know, looking to help their country.\u201d The MOU was practically an instrument of American capitulation that the Iranians could have drafted themselves, but Trump wanted to get out of the war, and so he signed it\u2014appropriately enough, at Versailles.<\/p>\n

The Iranians have made clear that they don\u2019t care about the MOU or, for that matter, what Trump thinks or wants. They are willing to inflict more damage on the Gulf states, and they\u2019re willing to accept damage in return. These are signs of a state directing a war rather than reacting to one. Iran is measuring costs and risks. It is pursuing the achievable goals of regime survival, control of the Strait, and preservation of its nuclear program.<\/p>\n

The Trump administration, for its part, bumbled into this war without a strategy. Instead, it relied on bad assumptions, outdated information, and the president\u2019s gut feelings. It assumed\u2014because the president wished very hard\u2014that the Iranian regime would collapse quickly. Trump and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth (who encouraged Trump to go to war) ignored years of analysis and war-gaming from the military and the intelligence community, and then were caught flat-footed when the Iranians closed the strait and choked the international economy, the one thing everyone else in the world knew they would do. The administration has since tried to bomb its way out of this war, but without the ability to hold territory, the United States is now merely depleting its stocks of expensive ordnance to little strategic effect.<\/p>\n

Even by his usual standards, Trump has been incoherent in Ankara, Turkey, where he\u2019s attending a NATO summit. Over the course of 24 hours, he has renewed his demands for the United States to own Greenland; confused Iran with Japan; and confused Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky with Russian President Vladimir Putin. He also noted that his videos are popular on \u201cTic Tac.\u201d He meant \u201cTikTok.\u201d<\/p>\n

Little wonder, then, that he seems unable to give sensible answers to questions about the renewed hostilities. When asked today about more attacks on Iran, Trump said: \u201cYou know, normally I wouldn\u2019t tell you. I wouldn\u2019t tell you, but you know what, there\u2019s not a thing they can do about it. So, the answer is probably.\u201d Not exactly an answer full of fire and fury. \u201cI\u2019ll give them a little warning,\u201d Trump said. \u201cWe\u2019re going to hit them hard tonight, but we\u2019ll see how it all works out.\u201d In other words: I don\u2019t know what else to do, so we\u2019ll do some more strikes and then see what Iran does.<\/em><\/p>\n

This is not the approach of a president who\u2019s running a war; this is the flailing of a man who\u2019s in over his head and is reacting to events, rather than guiding them. Lest this kind of equivocation lead the Iranians to doubt Trump\u2019s resolve, the president has added that he\u2019s still considering two other terrible ideas: an invasion of Iranian territory, and a campaign of probable war crimes.<\/p>\n

Read more Is the Left Driving Women Away?<\/a><\/p>\n

First, he has returned to talking about seizing Kharg Island, an operation that would require a considerable commitment of ground forces and inevitably lead to U.S. casualties. Second, he has again raised the possibility of striking Iran\u2019s infrastructure, including bridges and desalination plants. Such installations, if they are significantly contributing to Iran\u2019s military effort, might be considered legitimate targets. Trump, however, seems to have in mind immiserating the civilian population as a means of driving the regime to the table\u2014which would be a serious violation of the laws of war.<\/p>\n

Fortunately, Trump is unlikely to do any of this. Hours after his various responses, he was asked if the war was back on in full force. His answer was revealing about his limited ability to control the circumstances of the conflict, and a clear signal to the Iranians not to worry about anything he says, because he\u2019ll always change his mind.<\/p>\n

\n
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I think anything that happens is going to be over very quickly, and we\u2019ll only make it safer, including for oil. Oil is going to be very free, very easy, and it\u2019s going to happen very fast. We have the Hormuz Strait; the boats have pulled out. I mean there’s a gusher of oil right now, we have a lot of oil.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n

The United States does not, in fact, \u201chave the strait\u201d at this moment. At any rate, Trump capped these remarks by assuring his audience, and perhaps even those listening in Tehran: \u201cWe’re not looking for long term.\u201d<\/p>\n

I taught strategy at the Naval War College to military officers and senior civilians for a long time. The subject does not have a lot of hard-and-fast rules; wars share common characteristics but each conflict has its own peculiarities and exigent circumstances. One good guideline, however, is to avoid threatening your enemy and then immediately announcing that you really have no stomach for a fight. Strong leaders keep their own counsel and let their actions speak for them; weak leaders make threats and then broadcast how much they don\u2019t want to carry them out.<\/p>\n

Trump is now going through something like the stages of wartime grief: Denial that America had failed; anger, which has led to renewed attacks; and then bargaining, as if the Iranians could somehow be bought off like a gang of recalcitrant construction workers in New York. None of it has worked.<\/p>\n

Read more Photos: Russia\u2019s Constant Bombardment of Kyiv<\/a><\/p>\n

Depression and acceptance await.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The cease-fire was always just a Trump fantasy.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1181,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1182","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ideas"],"yoast_head":"\nIran, Not Trump, Is in Control of This War - Commercial Relocation Pros<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/commercialrelocationpros.com\/?p=1182\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Iran, Not Trump, Is in Control of This War - Commercial Relocation Pros\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The cease-fire was always just a Trump fantasy.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/commercialrelocationpros.com\/?p=1182\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Commercial Relocation Pros\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-07-08T19:16:11+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"6 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/commercialrelocationpros.com\\\/?p=1182#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/commercialrelocationpros.com\\\/?p=1182\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"admin\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/commercialrelocationpros.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/3a3374a445f1b5d4852b1d7c15b9fe3a\"},\"headline\":\"Iran, Not Trump, Is in Control of This War\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-07-08T19:16:11+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/commercialrelocationpros.com\\\/?p=1182\"},\"wordCount\":1208,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/commercialrelocationpros.com\\\/?p=1182#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/commercialrelocationpros.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/07\\\/ed48bf5585769302c82365240cb01f07.avif\",\"articleSection\":[\"Ideas\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/commercialrelocationpros.com\\\/?p=1182#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/commercialrelocationpros.com\\\/?p=1182\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/commercialrelocationpros.com\\\/?p=1182\",\"name\":\"Iran, Not Trump, Is in Control of This War - 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