{"id":1102,"date":"2026-07-06T12:40:28","date_gmt":"2026-07-06T12:40:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/commercialrelocationpros.com\/?p=1102"},"modified":"2026-07-06T12:40:28","modified_gmt":"2026-07-06T12:40:28","slug":"the-pretense-has-all-but-gone","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/commercialrelocationpros.com\/?p=1102","title":{"rendered":"The Pretense Has All but Gone"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

The official line <\/span>remains the same: The 10-month campaign of strikes on small boats in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific has nearly stopped the flow of drugs by sea into the United States. In December, President Trump boasted about a 92 percent drop in seaborne shipments. Last month, in an apparent sign of further progress, he said the decline was up to 97.2 percent.<\/p>\n

Read more Fixing Social Security Is Easy, but It Isn\u2019t Simple<\/a><\/p>\n

But government officials and agencies closest to the action, at sea and on America\u2019s streets, tell a different story. In hearings, official reports, and interviews they have all but given up the pretense that the campaign has succeeded in reducing the flow of drugs into the U.S., even as 221 people have been killed in more than 60 strikes.<\/p>\n

General Francis L. Donovan, the head of Southern Command, which runs the military campaign, told lawmakers earlier this year that \u201cthe boat strikes aren\u2019t the answer,\u201d though they remain \u201cone of the many tools\u201d in the long-term effort to counter narcotics. As if to prove the point, street prices for cocaine in the United States have plummeted, the opposite of what would be expected if smugglers were being deterred.<\/p>\n

Last month, Senators Rand Paul, a Republican, and Tim Kaine, a Democrat, pressed Secretary of State Marco Rubio about the three criteria the military uses to target boats. (The Pentagon\u2019s targeting criteria are classified, but some lawmakers on Capitol Hill have reviewed them.) At a committee hearing, the senators focused not on the criteria themselves but on what was missing: any requirement that guns or drugs be on board.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn order to blow them up, we don\u2019t have to say that they\u2019re armed or have drugs, and I think that a lot of people would have questions, which I still do,\u201d Paul said.<\/p>\n

Rubio told the senators only that the military doesn\u2019t blow up every <\/i>boat it investigates. \u201cI can tell you they do walk away from strikes,\u201d Rubio said.<\/p>\n

Trump has made unsupported claims that fentanyl, the drug most responsible for an epidemic of fatal overdoses, is on the targeted boats. That line began to fall apart shortly after the initial killings when top officials acknowledged to lawmakers that the strikes were aimed at cocaine smuggling. A Pentagon inspector-general published in May confirmed that, saying fentanyl is \u201cproduced almost entirely in Mexico\u201d and enters the U.S. through the southern border\u2014not via boats in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific.<\/p>\n

Boats do carry cocaine, but the drugs on the vessels off the coast of Venezuela are most likely headed not to the United States but to Europe or Africa, Jonathan Caulkins, a drug-policy researcher at Carnegie Mellon University, told me.<\/p>\n

Over 10 months, the White House and Pentagon have maintained that the campaign is vital to securing \u201cour Homeland from the drugs that are killing our people,\u201d as Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth put it. \u201cThe President has leveraged his dealmaking prowess to stop the influx of fentanyl precursors from China and struck narcoterrorist drug boats to stop the flow of drugs by sea,\u201d Anna Kelly, a White House spokesperson, told me in an emailed statement. \u201cPresident Trump is using every tool at his disposal to save lives from the scourge of illicit narcotics.\u201d<\/p>\n

Yet measured against their stated purpose of reducing the flow of narcotics into the United States, the strikes have been a bust. When combined with other policy changes, they may even have set back the Justice Department\u2019s ability to pursue cases against cartel kingpins. And the strikes\u2019 legal justification, which has been shrouded in secrecy, is now being tested in federal court.<\/p>\n

The campaign grinds on regardless. Since Donovan\u2019s March testimony, he has authorized 21 strikes that have killed 64 people.<\/p>\n

The initial strike in September provoked outrage, especially after Hegseth was accused of ordering a follow-up strike on two survivors as they clung to the wreckage. Hegseth denied any impropriety but the furor prompted congressional scrutiny of how and why the military was pursuing the campaign. Subsequent strikes have caused much less of a stir. That may ultimately prove to be the campaign\u2019s most significant impact: to inure the American public to the idea that the U.S. can fire missiles, without presenting evidence, at anyone it claims has a drug connection\u2014a rationale that may soon be used on a much greater scale elsewhere in the region.<\/p>\n

The Coast Guard<\/span> for years has been on the front lines of battling suspected drug smugglers in the Caribbean. If Coast Guard officers found narcotics on a boat, the smugglers would be brought in for questioning, jailed, and prosecuted in the U.S. Traffickers could be pressured to flip on their higher-ups in exchange for lighter sentences, allowing federal prosecutors to build cases against cartel bosses over time.<\/p>\n

Boat strikes, by definition, scupper that approach. \u201cBy killing the mariners on the delivery boats, we lose any opportunity to exploit them, their boats, and their electronics for more information to tackle trafficking groups,\u201d Thomas Padden, the former acting director of the office for prosecuting international drug trafficking, said in before a congressional subcommittee in March. (The Department of Justice closed the office Padden led last fall.)<\/p>\n

But the administration has gone a step further, changing its policy so that suspected low-level smugglers who are caught alive are typically now let go. A Justice Department memo, issued in February 2025, aimed to eliminate the threat of cartels through more aggressive action against cartel honchos. But in pursuit of that goal, the memo said, \u201cit will often be prudent to pursue removal from the United States of a low-level investigative target\u201d rather than incur prosecution costs. The same month, then\u2013Acting Deputy Attorney General Emil Bove gave a preview of how he favored treating low-level operatives instead. He told top drug prosecutors at a Justice Department conference that the U.S. should \u201cjust sink the boats\u201d rather than interdict the vessels, NPR reported last fall.<\/p>\n

Read more The Age of the Trillionaire<\/a><\/p>\n

Since April 1 of last year, the Coast Guard has repatriated 187 suspected smugglers, Commander Steven Roth, a Coast Guard spokesperson, told me in an email. \u201cIn previous years, the Coast Guard generally brought such suspects to the U.S. for prosecution,\u201d he noted. In theory, repatriated suspects could be prosecuted in their home country. But Roth told me that the agency \u201cdoes not track or monitor partner nation prosecutions.\u201d (That count, Roth said, does not include the few who have survived the strikes.)<\/p>\n

A suspected drug smuggler crossing the Caribbean in a small boat, then, faces two potential fates following detection: being blown out of the water by a missile, or being caught and repatriated by the Coast Guard. In neither case does the smuggler face the U.S. justice system. From the cartels\u2019 perspective, the U.S. government\u2019s new approach means either that a handful of employees and some merchandise is lost but potential turncoats are eliminated, or some merchandise is seized by the Coast Guard and the low-level smugglers are sent home.<\/p>\n

Natalie Baldassarre, a Justice Department spokesperson, told me in an email statement that \u201cthere has been no pause on federal prosecutions of drug smugglers.\u201d The department\u2019s focus, she said, is on eliminating cartels by prosecuting \u201cthe most serious, readily provable offenses\u201d for cartel bosses.<\/p>\n

But Trump undermined one of the highest-profile anti-narcotics convictions of recent years when he pardoned Juan Orlando Hern\u00e1ndez, the former president of Honduras, who faced 45 years in prison for conspiring to import cocaine into the U.S. His was a prime example of a kingpin conviction made possible by the prosecution of lower-level offenders. The pardon was a \u201cbetrayal to every agent and prosecutor that worked on the case,\u201d John F. Tobon, a former Homeland Security Investigations official, told me. Trump said in his pardon that Hern\u00e1ndez had been \u201ctreated very harshly and unfairly.\u201d<\/p>\n

The price of drugs on America\u2019s streets shows just how ineffective the campaign has been. The special agent in charge of the Drug Enforcement Administration Miami Field Division told a local news outlet in May that his agents had found the street cost of cocaine at record lows, which suggests a plentiful supply. Prices were \u201cthe lowest I\u2019ve seen during my 22-year career,\u201d he said. In New York, cocaine hasn\u2019t been so cheap since the mid-1990s, a person familiar with local law enforcement\u2019s internal data told me. (The DEA did not respond to a request for comment.)<\/p>\n

At the same time, the purity of cocaine has risen marginally since September, the month of the first strike, according to data shared with me by the Street Drug Analysis Lab at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. If supply were tightening, researchers would expect to see more impurities in the samples, because dealers would have a greater profit incentive to dilute their product with adulterants, Nabarun Dasgupta, the head of the lab, told me. He\u2019s noticed the opposite: on average, slightly fewer adulterants in the tested samples.<\/p>\n

The legal backing<\/span> for the boat strikes may prove even shakier than the campaign\u2019s strategic objectives. The Justice Department\u2019s Office of Legal Counsel drafted a secret memo last July to provide justification for the operation. Many legal experts contend that the strikes violate both U.S. and international law by targeting noncombatants who have not been found guilty of a crime. But the Justice Department\u2019s lawyers reportedly argue that cartels are selling drugs to finance violence and extortion, making the boats legitimate targets in an \u201carmed conflict\u201d and the people killed either enemy casualties or collateral damage.<\/p>\n

Such a secret justification invokes for some former government lawyers a different series of memos written after 9\/11. In 2002, Justice Department lawyers created secret legal backing for the use of what the administration called \u201cenhanced interrogation techniques\u201d on terror suspects that, they claimed, didn\u2019t meet the threshold for torture and were therefore permissible. After one of the memos was leaked, prompting outrage, the justification was eventually withdrawn. \u201cThe OLC lawyers conjured up a torture memo to justify torture,\u201d Brian Finucane, a senior adviser at the International Crisis Group and a former State Department attorney, told me. \u201cAnd in this administration, they conjured a murder memo to justify murder.\u201d<\/p>\n

The military\u2019s conduct is also under internal scrutiny. In May, the Defense Department\u2019s inspector general an inquiry into whether officials followed standard protocols when conducting the strikes.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the administration\u2019s justification for the strikes is being tested in court. In January, the families of two Trinidadian men killed in an October strike the U.S. government of violating \u201cinternational laws prohibiting extrajudicial killings and federal law prohibiting murder.\u201d The families of 26-year-old Chad Joseph and 41-year-old Rishi Samaroo said in a complaint that the two men were returning home from fishing and farm work in Venezuela when they were killed. Trump claimed that the men were \u201cmale narcoterrorists.\u201d The government has filed a motion to dismiss the suit, which was filed in federal court in Massachusetts. \u201cThe strikes were ordered consistent with the laws of armed conflict,\u201d Baldassarre, the Justice Department spokesperson, told me in an email. (The Pentagon did not respond to requests for comment on the litigation.)<\/p>\n

But the campaign, whatever its failures, has succeeded in normalizing the use of military force to combat drugs. Late last year, the White House designated fentanyl as a \u201cweapon of mass destruction,\u201d language more often applied to nuclear or chemical threats. The designation arguably laid the groundwork for the use of the military to fight cartels that produce the synthetic opioid in Mexico. Such air strikes have long been a red line for the Mexican government, as my colleague Nick Miroff reported in December. But the boat strikes have helped normalize unilateral lethal action in the region under the banner of fighting drugs\u2014so much so that strikes on Mexico\u2019s territory may now appear as the logical next step of an expanding campaign.<\/p>\n

Other nearby governments already have gotten the message to play ball. Most recently, in Colombia, where President Gustavo Petro has harshly rebuked the boat strikes, a far-right candidate who secured an endorsement from Trump won a tight presidential race. In March, Ecuadorian forces and the U.S. military announced a joint anti-drug-trafficking mission. Last month, the U.S. killed the leader of Tren de Aragua, a Venezuelan gang, in a strike executed in cooperation with the Trump-friendly government in Caracas. On Wednesday, the State Department designated another drug-trafficking group, the Ecuadorian gang Chone Killers, as a foreign terrorist organization. \u201cWhat we have learned after decades of effort is that there is not a criminal-justice solution to the cartel problem,\u201d White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller told a gathering of Latin American military leaders at Southern Command headquarters in Florida this spring. \u201cThese organizations can only be defeated with military power.\u201d<\/p>\n

Collectively, the actions send a message that the United States will not be restricted by laws or norms in pursuit of its foes. The attacks on the boats, and the administration\u2019s promotion of them on social media, have been integral to constructing an image of narco-traffickers as \u201cthis new enemy,\u201d Adam Isacson, an expert on Latin American drug trafficking at WOLA, a Washington, D.C.\u2013based NGO, told me. The strikes are largely about \u201cwanting to prove the point that you\u2019re willing to go as far as possible to confront that enemy\u2014unless, of course, they\u2019re the president of Honduras or something.\u201d<\/p>\n

At the G7 summit last month, after his dubious assertion that seaborne drug trafficking had been all but eliminated, Trump pointed toward his next frontier. \u201cAnd now we\u2019re going to go and focus on the land,\u201d he said. \u201cThey come through Mexico. Mexico has lost control of their country. The cartels run Mexico. And it\u2019s sad.\u201d<\/p>\n

Read more I Changed My Mind About Small-Dollar Campaign Donors<\/a><\/p>\n

Nick Miroff contributed to this report.<\/i><\/p>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

More than 200 deaths later, the drugs keep coming.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1101,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1102","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-national-security"],"yoast_head":"\nThe Pretense Has All but Gone - Commercial Relocation Pros<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/commercialrelocationpros.com\/?p=1102\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Pretense Has All but Gone - Commercial Relocation Pros\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"More than 200 deaths later, the drugs keep coming.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/commercialrelocationpros.com\/?p=1102\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Commercial Relocation Pros\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-07-06T12:40:28+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"12 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/commercialrelocationpros.com\\\/?p=1102#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/commercialrelocationpros.com\\\/?p=1102\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"admin\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/commercialrelocationpros.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/3a3374a445f1b5d4852b1d7c15b9fe3a\"},\"headline\":\"The Pretense Has All but Gone\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-07-06T12:40:28+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/commercialrelocationpros.com\\\/?p=1102\"},\"wordCount\":2347,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/commercialrelocationpros.com\\\/?p=1102#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/commercialrelocationpros.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/07\\\/c41ec9e93f0d0826fbeba9630e28bdca.avif\",\"articleSection\":[\"National Security\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/commercialrelocationpros.com\\\/?p=1102#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/commercialrelocationpros.com\\\/?p=1102\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/commercialrelocationpros.com\\\/?p=1102\",\"name\":\"The Pretense Has All but Gone - 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